23 January 2008

Early Early Early simulations

I've been a big slacker today, mostly because its my "big" 31, but hey.
With baseball season around the corner (well, OK, its a wide corner), I've been playing around with some BB Mogul 2008 simulations of the 2008 season. It is clearly not perfect as I've been updating rosters manually, but some points of interest.
After 322 simulations of 2008 ...

- The Red Sox are still the World Series favorites, winning 63 (with an average record of 92.8-69.2). Next up are the Mets with 45 World Series wins, followed by Cleveland (34), Los Angeles of Anaheim (33), Detroit (31) and Atlanta (22). Interestingly, Baltimore, Minnesota, Arizona and Cincinnati each won once while Pittsburgh (yes, that Pittsburgh) won 3 times, more than Milwaukee and the same as San Diego and St. Louis. 2007 World Series Runner-up Colorado won 15 times.

- In only one division did each team win at least 1 World Series: the NL Central. That might surprise some of you, but I think the division is so close in talent that almost any team has a chance to win it, and once the playoffs start, its anybody's game to win the whole thing.

- Only three teams failed to make the postseason after 322 runs: Kansas City (67.5-94.5), Oakland (sorry Louis, 68.1-93.9) and Florida (66.8-95.2). The Nationals made the playoffs 6 times as the Wild Card and San Francisco won the NL West 4 times.

- Early Division/Wild Card favorites:
NL East - New York Mets (189 times, next is Atlanta with 80)
NL Central - Chicago Cubs (116, next is Houston with 75)
NL West - Los Angeles Dodgers (119 times, a slight edge over Colorado with 115)
NL Wild Card - Philadelphia Phillies (70, next is Atlanta with 60 and New York with 53)
AL East - Boston Red Sox (233 times, next is New York with 64)
AL Central - Detroit Tigers (187 times, next is Cleveland with 119)
AL West - Los Angeles Angels (239 times, next is Texas with 48)
AL Wild Card - Cleveland Indians (80 times, followed by New York with 59 and Detroit with 57)

- And, for what its worth, potential MVP and Cy Youngs
AL MVP: David Ortiz (1B-BOS) at 200 times, followed by Alex Rodriguez (3B-NYY) at 50 times and Curtis Granderson (OF-DET) at 24 times. Interesting to note that Luke Scott (OF-BAL) won once, along with Garret Anderson (OF-LAA), and Carlos Pena (1B-TAM) won 8 times! Newly minted Tiger Miguel Cabrera won 15 times.
NL MVP: Matt Holliday (OF-COL) at 220 times, followed by Mark Teixiera (1B-ATL) at 25 times and Albert Pujols (1B-STL) at 19 times. Rick Ankiel (OF-STL) won once, while Brad Hawpe (OF-COL) somehow won 7 times (as long as he isn't facing AL pitching I guess).
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett (BOS) won 85 times, followed by C.C. Sabathia (CLE) 44 times, Fausto Carmona (CLE) 41 times, Justin Verlander (DET) 34 times and John Lackey 30 times. Oddly, Eric Bedard (BAL) threw 22 no hitters in the simulations but only won the Cy Young 24 times, implying how anemic the Baltimore offense will be. Some fun 1-offs include James Shields, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Jake Westbrook, Nate Robertson, Jered Weaver, Joba Chamberlain and Jeremy Guthrie. King Felix won 4 times and Dice-K won twice.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy (SD) won 70 times, Tim Hudson (ATL) won 55 times, John Smoltz (ATL) won 35 times, Brandon Webb (ARI) won 34 times and Roy Oswalt (HOU) won 18 times. The surprise for me was Shawn Hill (WAS) winning 8 times. Newly acquired Danny Haren (ARI) won 5 times and Dodger rookie Clayton Kershaw won 4 times. One-offs include Matt Morris, Tom Gorzelanny, Micah Owings, Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Cook and Tim Lincecum. And the revivied Pedro Martinez (NYM) won 6 times!

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