28 January 2008

Santana, Bedard and Roberts Trade Implications ... ?

There is a lot of chatter lately about three potentially big trades that might happen in the very near future, all somewhat dependent on one another. So, out of curiosity, I simulated (on Baseball Mogul 2008) the 2008 season with the current rosters and the three big trades in question (or the nearest I could approximate, plus some hand-in-hand signings) to see the effect on the 2008 season without the trades.

Here are the trades I made:
1. Seattle receives Eric Bedard (SP) from Baltimore for Adam Jones (OF), George Sherrill (RP), Chris Tillman (SP) and a 4th prospect (meaning a random Single A player, here being Matt Mangini (3B)). Seattle goes on to sign Brad Wilkerson (OF) to replace Adam Jones.
2. New York (N) receives Johan Santana from Minnesota for Ryan Church (OF), Carlos Gomez (OF), Mike Pelfrey (SP) and Aaron Heilman (RP).
3. Chicago (N) receives Brian Roberts (2B) from Baltimore for Sean Gallagher (SP), Felix Pie (OF) and a 3rd prospect (here being Single A pitcher Jose Ceda).
I fixed the rosters in question appropriately and ran both the season with trades and without the trades 20 times. Here are the results:
Team: w/o trades (postseason) - w/ trades (post season)  
Minnesota: 81.2-80.8 (1 AC, 3 DW, 1 WC) - 78.7-83.3 (1 WC)  
Difference: -2.5 Wins
Baltimore: 76-86 (none) - 70.7-91.3 (none)  
Difference: -5.3 Wins
Seattle: 81.4-80.6 (1 DW, 1 WC) - 85.8-76.2 (1 WS, 6 DW)  
Difference: +4.4 Wins
New York (N): 95.1-66.9 (5 WS, 15 DW, 2 WC) - 92.8-69.2 (5 WS, 10 DW, 5 WC)
Difference: -2.3 Wins
Chicago (N): 83.5-78.5 (3 NC, 5 DW, 1 WC ) - 87.9-74.1 (1 WS, 11 DW, 2 WC)
Difference: +4.4 Wins
(DW = Division Winner, WC = Wild Card, WS = World Series Winner, AC = AL Champion, NC = NL Champion)

Minnesota: Obviously, losing a pitcher like Santana will hurt any team ... a lot. Minnesota loses 2.5 Wins, and in the AL Central, that translates to missing 3 Division titles. However, it doesn't turn Minnesota into a true cellar-dweller.
Baltimore: Well, what can you say about the Orioles. Ship out their ace and their All-Star 2B and you get, well, an even worse team. The O's lose 5.3 Wins with the two trades, but they weren't going to the postseason anyway, so why not retool?
Seattle: Now, here's a team if ever I've seen one whose mantra should be "Win now!". Adding Bedard for the bounty of players added 4.4 Wins for the 'Ners, and that translates to a World Series win and 6 Division titles. That doesn't knock the Angels from their position as favorite, but it sure does make a dent.
New York (N): Normally, you'd think trading for Santana is a no-brainer, but here the Mets in fact lose 2.3 Wins after trading for Santana. The important thing is that Santana really does't raise the odds at World Series wins and postseason appearances. Given the big money contract involves, I'd say no, but hey, its New York, you have to upstage the Yankees somehow.
Chicago (N): All the Cubbies get from all this is Brian Roberts, a good 2B whose power may have been ... er ... enhanced. However, by adding Roberts and moving DeRosa back to the bench, The Cubbies go from sort-of favorites in the NL Central to hands-down favorites, even collected a (gasp!) World Series win. Here's a trade that should be made, too.

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