23 March 2008

Predictions, Part III: National League

Continuing on to the NL...

NL East
New York 91-71
Atlanta 88-74
Philadelphia 87-75
Washington 77-85
Florida 67-95

The top of the NL East is going to be a busy place. New York, Atlanta and Philly are separated by a mere 4 games. However, looks can be deceiving as New York won fully 47% of the division titles, with Atlanta and Philly sharing the rest (save for Washington's 1.6%) However, once New York gets to the playoffs, it becomes the favorite to win it all, with >15% of the World Series won (more on that later). Philadelphia wins more wild cards than Atlanta (17.4% to 16.8%) but Atlanta actually ends up on top for playoff appearances (44.6% to 40.6%). Atlanta's good showing surprised me, and I wonder if either BB Mogul favors Atlanta's veteran pitching staff or Philadelphia's park effect wreaks havoc on the Philly staff. Florida, however, is the only NL team to never win a division or wild card.

NL Central
Chicago 87-75
Houston 82-80
Milwaukee 80-82
Cincinnati 77-85
Pittsburgh 75-87
St. Louis 75-87

(* = BB Mogul does not divide the results of the NL Central to 5th and 6th place. Instead, they're just listed as "5th+")
Chicago looks to be the heavy favorite in the NL Central. They win 54.2% of the titles, followed by Houston's 20.4%. I'm a little baffled by Houston's showing, I pegged the 'Stros to be pretty terrible in 2008, but BB Mogul must like something, my guess it is the offense. Milwaukee does walk away with 14.6% of the titles as well. The NL Central does look like the weakest division in the NL again, with the division only accounting for 8% of all the wild cards. Note how quickly St. Louis has fallen to the cellar. Heck, even Pittsburgh (?!) won a World Series ... they get my "NL Surprise Team" label for 2008. I guess St. Louis' fall can be rationalized by any team hoping the likes of Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer belong in an MLB rotation. (Oh yeah, and Dusty Baker sucks.)

NL West
Colorado 87-75
San Diego 85-77
Los Angeles 85-77
Arizona 81-81
San Francisco 71-91

Colorado looks like 2007 was no fluke, coming out on top of the NL West for 2008. They grab the division in 41.4% of the simulations, while San Diego and LA duke it out for next best at 27.6% and 20.0% respectively. Of course, Arizona won the division in 2007, but the simulations predict a step backwards for the Diamondbacks, coming in at playoffs appearances 14% of the time. And for you Bay Area types wallowing in pity about your Giants and A's, yes, even the Giants win the NL West ... 0.4% of the time.

Playoff Picture
Here's the playoff percentages for the NL:
New York - 70.2%
Chicago - 57.0%
Colorado - 48.4%
Atlanta - 44.6%
Philadelphia - 40.6%
San Diego - 35.6%
Los Angeles - 30.4%
Houston - 24.4%
Milwaukee - 18.6%
Arizona - 14.0%
The Rest - <10%
Florida - 0%

My NL playoff teams: New York, Chicago, Colorado and Atlanta (wild card).
Up next, the playoffs and awards.

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