07 November 2005

Baseball Musings 11/7/2005

Here is my NL ROY argument, as I've been getting some flack about picking Howard:

for 2005

Wee Willy Taveras (OF-HOU) - .291/.325/.341 for an OPS of .666 (ha!). Good numbers, but of his 172 hits in 592 AB, he had 20 extra base hits. That leads to an EXAVE of .034! Also, you ideally want a leadoff/#2 hitter to have an OBP of >.325.

Big Ryan Howard (1B-PHI)- .288/.356/.567 for an OPS of .921. Admittedly, it was in 280 fewer AB than Taveras (312), but Howard had 41 extra base hits in that, leading an EXAVE of .128, a full 3.8 times higher than Taveras.

and for kicks,

Jumping Jeff Francoeur (OF-ATL)- .300/.336/.549 for an OPS of .884. Jeff's numbers were in only 257 AB. He had 35 extra base hits in those 257 AB, leading to an EXAVE of .136, not too much higher than Howard's, and negated by Jeff lower OBP.

So, there you have it, why I like Ryan Howard. Of course, who knows where he'll be playing next year thanks to Jim Thome.

1 comment:

biglou said...

thanks for making the argument, because I think all these other people are nuts. I couldn't pick Taveras over Howard OR Francoeur, and on the NLCS broadcast they were hyping Taveras as "the likely NL ROY".