09 March 2006

BP 2006

I've been slowly digesting some of the BP2006 PECOTA predictions for the upcoming seasons. For those of you unfamiliar with PECOTA, check out the Baseball Prospectus website for more info.

A few issues I have with the PECOTA method:
- It doesn't deal well with players with injuries in the last three years. For example, using the PECOTA, Curt Schilling is predicted to have these stats for 2006: 6-7, 6 SVs, 35G/13GS, 99.7 IP, 17.5 VORP. To my knowledge, Schill is not going back to the bullpen EVER, so it seems unlikely that he'll only start 13 games and rack up 6 saves. Similar things occur with other previously injured players like Kerry Wood or Nomar.
- It favors minor leaguers with good track records. Best example here is that Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox 2B/SS prospect has a projected VORP of 33.6. As a comparision, Brian Roberts is projected at 35.6. Now, as much as I love Pedroia, I'd be surprised to see him in the majors until late/injury, so it seems like an unrealistic VORP at that.

Beyond that, its kind of fun to look at the predictions.

So interesting notes so far:
- Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS) will outperform Scott Rolen (3B - STL)
- Ryan Howard (1B -PHI) will be almost as valuable as Derrek Lee (1B - CHC) - 46.6 vs 51 VORP
- Jason Bay (OF - PIT) will be as valuable as Manny Ramirez (OF - BOS) - 48.6 vs 49.7 VORP

Some World Baseball Classic notes:
- Canada beating the US was great ... and right now the Red Sox are winning the WBC with big numbers from Big Papi (2 HR), Varitek (GS) and Adam Stern (HR, 4 RBI). The US will make it out of the first round, but just barely.
- In retrospect, the Dominican looks reeeal good, especially their bullpen. Oh well, so much for predicting stuff.
- My over/under for defections by the Cuban team is 2. We'll see.

And tomorrow is Friday. Woo!

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